As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.
I saw a post asking ELI5: How does TrendTapestry's predictive algorithm actually work? and honestly,I'm curious too. Is it just sophisticated sentiment analysis pulling data from social media and news articles,or is there something more proprietary going on? I imagine it's looking at patterns – correlating certain keywords or hashtag usage with future upticks in particular products or services.What I'm really interested in is how it avoids falling into the correlation/causation trap. Such as, a spike in searches for "rain boots" might correlate with the weather forecast, but it doesn't cause the rain. Does TrendTapestry have built-in mechanisms to account for these kinds of external factors, or is it prone to false positives?
Also, how much does volume vs. intensity of discussion weigh into it? Is a small group of very vocal enthusiasts more predictive than a larger group with lukewarm interest? Figuring out the weighting must be crucial for accuracy. I'd love to hear from anyone who has experience with or insights into how these kinds of algorithms generally function, especially concerning separating genuine signals from the noise.