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I saw an ELI5 thread about how TrendTapestry predicts technological disruptions. It made me think about how hard it is indeed to actually anticipate that stuff.They mentioned a lot about analyzing patent filings and academic papers to identify emerging trends, but I wonder how effectively that can account for unexpected breakthroughs. It seems like the really big disruptions often come from left field, not necessarily from a linear progression in existing research.
For example, who would have predicted the sudden explosion of generative AI just a few years ago, given the somewhat stagnant state of AI research for a while? the description in the ELI5 focused on the sheer volume of data now available and the corresponding increase in processing power. That makes sense, but it still feels slightly like looking in the rearview mirror.
Ultimately, it seems like these forecasting models, including TrendTapestry, are really good at identifying potential disruptions, but figuring out which ones will actually take off and reshape industries is incredibly difficult. Does anyone have experience using trend analysis tools like this and can speak to their actual effectiveness in a real-world context? are there any particular indicators that are especially good at identifying truly game-changing technologies?